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Berkshire Hathawayโ€™s return regression process

๐Ÿ‘ค Maodun
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๋ฒ„ํ•์€ ์‹œ์žฅ์˜ ๋ถˆ์ผ์น˜๋ฅผ ์ฐพ์•„๋‚ด์„œ ์•ŒํŒŒ๋ฅผ ๋จน๋Š” ๋ฐฉ์‹์œผ๋กœ ํˆฌ์žํ•จ.


์ด ๋ฐฉ์‹์€ ์ •๋ณด ํ†ต์‹ ์ด ๋ฐœ๋‹ฌํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์€ ์˜›๋‚ ์—๋Š” ์•„์ฃผ ์ข‹์€ ๋ฐฉ์‹์ด์—ˆ์Œ.



2000๋…„๋Œ€ ์ „๊นŒ์ง€๋งŒ ํ•ด๋„ 



๊ธฐ์—… ์‹ค์ ์„ ๊ธฐ๊ด€ ํˆฌ์ž์ž๊ฐ€ ๋ฏธ๋ฆฌ ๋ฐ›์•„๋ณผ ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ์—ˆ์Œ.



๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์‹œ์žฅ์€ ์ ์  ํšจ์œจ์ ์ด๊ฒŒ ๋ณ€ํ•˜๊ณ , ๋ฒ„ํ•์˜ ์•ŒํŒŒ๋Š” ์ฒœ์ฒœํžˆ ์‚ฌ๋ผ์กŒ์Œ.




์ •๋ณด๊ฐ€ ๋ฐœ๋‹ฌํ•˜๊ณ , ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ๋” ๋‚˜์€ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ๋” ๋น ๋ฅธ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์•ˆ์—


๋ชจ๋‘๊ฐ€ ์•Œ๊ฒŒ ๋์„ ๋•Œ.


๊ธฐ๊ด€ ํˆฌ์ž์ž์˜ ์•ŒํŒŒ๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋ผ์ง.




๋ฒ„ํ•์˜ ์Šจํ”ผ๋ฅผ ์ดˆ๊ณผํ•˜๋Š” ์ˆ˜์ต๋ฅ ์„ ๋ณด๋ฉด ๊ทธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ์•Œ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Œ



์ ์  ๊ฐˆ ์ˆ˜๋ก ์ง€์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ์ด๊ธฐ๊ธฐ ํž˜๋“  ์ด์œ 




์‹œ์žฅ์ด ํšจ์œจ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ณ€ํ•  ์ˆ˜๋ก, ๊ฒฐ๊ตญ ์‹œ์žฅ์„ ๋›ฐ์–ด๋„˜๋Š”๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฑด ๋ถˆ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์œผ๋กœ ๋ณ€ํ•จ



๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  AI์™€ ์ •๋ณด์˜ ๋ฐœ๋‹ฌ๋กœ ๋”๋”๋” ์‹œ์žฅ์€ ํšจ์œจ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ณ€ํ•จ.


์•ž์œผ๋กœ๋„ ๊ณ„์†.


๐Ÿ”ฅ ์‹ค์‹œ๊ฐ„ ๋„คํ‹ฐ์ฆŒ ๋ฒ ์ŠคํŠธ ๋ฐ˜์‘

  • ใ…‡ใ…‡08๋…„์— ํ•˜๋”ฐ ์กดX ์ž˜์นœ์ฒ™ ํ•˜๋”๋‹ˆ ๊ทธ ๋’ค์— ์ˆ˜์ต๋ฅ ๋„ ๊ทธ๋‹ฅ์ด๋…ธ ใ…‹ใ…‹
  • S๏ผ†P500๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ง€์ˆ˜์ถ”์ข…์ด ๋ฌด์ ์ด๊ตฌ๋‚˜
  • ใ…‡ใ…‡๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์†์Šฌ์€ ๋ฌด์ ์ด๊ตฌ๋‚˜
  • ใ…‚ใ……ใ…ใ…ใ…Œ๋ˆ์ด ๋„ˆ๋ฌด ๋งŽ์•„์ ธ์„œ ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ๊ฑฐ์ž„ ๋ฒ„ํ•์ด ์ž๊ธฐ 100๋งŒ๋ถˆ ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉด ์ง€๊ธˆ๋„ ๋งค๋…„ 100%๋„ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•œ ์  ์žˆ๋‹ค

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